It’s a ‘roller coaster ride’, but demand is still driving polymer industry forward
Demand will increase by 5% a year, with strong growth in Greater China and east Asia continuing to lead the industry.
China takes 30% chunk of market
The last thirty years have seen a significant shift in the direction of the polymer industry. In 1983 approximately 74% of world demand came from developed countries of North America, Western Europe and Japan. Even though demand continued to grow their share had decreased to 32% by 2013.
The reason is there is much faster growth in developing regions, particularly East Asia. Greater China, which only had a 6% share in 1983, is now the largest market for polymers in the world with a share of 30%.
An AMI analyst told FoodProductionDaily.com, “Growth has been driven by the country's industrialisation over the past 30 years and its development as the ‘workshop of the world’.
"A point to remember about China is that a large proportion of the plastics processing there is for goods which are ultimately exported (toys, electrical items, household goods, etc). Government policy is now trying to make economic growth more consumer driven than export driven, and this will probably help maintain China's strong growth.”
2013 global polymer demand divided by region is as follows: Greater China 30%, Europe 19%, North America 17%, Asia-Pacific 15%, Middle East and Africa 9%, South America 5%, and Indian sub-continent 5%.
Fluctuating oil prices
Share of world demand for polymers
1983: North America, Western Europe and Japan account for 74% of world demand. Greater China accounts for 6%
2013: North America, Western Europe and Japan account for 32% of world demand. Greater China accounts for 30%
Over the past 30 years the world market for polymers has grown from 45m tonnes to more than 250m tonnes.
Around 39% of polymer demand is for consumer packaging, and the consultants estimate around 80% of that is for food and drink (around 75m tonnes).
Recent years have shown the global polymer business is ‘a roller coaster ride where disruption and change are a constant factor in the marketplace.’
The industry has faced challenges such as the global financial crisis in 2008-2009 and the Eurozone crisis. Changing oil prices have been difficult to manage and have led to fluctuating polymer demand and prices.
Plastic: advantages and problems.
The success of plastics is due to their light weight, strength, and design flexibility: characteristics that have helped the material bite into metal, glass and paper markets.
However, traditional materials still have a strong position in many markets – giving polymers further opportunities to replace them.
Plastic packaging gives food sufficient protection to help address food waste, AMI says.
“Environmental image is always the issue for plastics packaging, where littering is a big problem. It often leads to ill-informed attacks from politicians and vested interest groups. Increased recycling schemes may help but this adds to cost.
"On the whole, though, we consider plastic packaging as the solution to many of the problems of food safety, preservation and distribution that the world faces.”
While biopolymers may offer a way to tackle environmental concerns, AMI warns the market remains a small one.
“Biopolymers we consider will remain a niche part of the packaging industry - cost, supply and availability will probably continue to rule it out for most applications.”
Based in the UK and US, AMI Consulting provides market intelligence for the global plastics industry.
